Euro elections: why the pundits are wrong

Now that Brown seems to battling through the current crisis and the Tories appear to be on the backfoot commentators now seem to agree that losing Glenrothes by-election will not bring about a coup. Instead they have, en masse, decided that the Euro & Local elections will be the crucial point. I disagree.

Let us remind ourselves that Labour got a mere 22.6% of the vote at the last Euro's and elected just 19 MEPs but then the Tories only got 26.7%, the reason UKIP. at the next election i expect UKIPs vote share to plunge to around 10% as a result both the Tory and Labour vote will recover. Brown can therefore claim an improvement. As for the locals we hardly have any seats left to lose.

I am convinced therefore that Brown will survive a poorish result and lead Labour into a 2010 election.